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How To Learn Stocks :
Broker Talk: Cyclical Sector Allocation Is Back

The recent market weakness might be making some investors nervous, but it also affords them an opportunity to pick up investments in cyclical sectors at more attractive prices, the brokerages say.

Who’s Talking: Marc Zabicki, senior market strategist, Ameriprise Financial

The Gist: The market’s “extraordinary” rally that started in early March cooled off in the last two weeks of June, but that’s no cause for alarm, Zabicki says. In his view, the correction is overdue and, he says, it should be modest in nature.

“We believe the February and early March trading represented extraordinarily irrational expectations that have since been corrected by a sensible assessment of the business cycle,” the strategist says. “We believe market sentiment and renewed realization of fundamentals will keep the current bout of equity weakness relatively contained.”

With the market looking to be range-bound in the near term, investors would do well to take advantage of the lower stock prices and adjust their portfolios to reflect a more balanced allocation between cyclical and defensive sectors.

In fact, Zabicki upgraded early cycle sectors like industrials (to Overweight from Equal Weight) and energy (to Equal Weight from Underweight) while downgrading more defensive sectors such as consumer staples (to Equal Weight from Overweight) and utilities (to Underweight from Equal Weight).

“In our view, these shifts bring our U.S. equity allocations more balance, with no bias toward cyclical or defensive exposure,” Zabicki says.

Here’s how Ameriprise now weights the 10 sectors of the S&P 500:

Sector Weight
Consumer Discretionary Underweight
Consumer Staples Equal Weight
Energy Equal Weight
Financials Overweight
Health Care Overweight
Industrials Overweight
Information Technology Equal Weight
Materials Underweight
Telecom Equal Weight
Utilities Underweight

Who’s Talking: Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis, Charles Schwab Center for Financial Research

The Gist: Like Zabicki, Sorensen sees the recent market weakness as an opportunity to “play the pullback” and increase exposure to more cyclical stocks at cheaper prices.

“The impressive overall market rally from the March lows has stalled, while the cyclical areas that had benefitted from hopes of an economic recovery have pulled back,” says Sorensen. “However, in every situation lies an opportunity: Investors looking to make some shorter-term moves could benefit from buying stocks and funds at lower prices.”

However, in contrast to Zabicki, Sorensen takes a slightly less balanced, more pro-cyclical view when it comes to sector allocation. Schwab continues to believe that global reflationary policies, combined with the possibility of a continued weakening of the dollar, will benefit the more cyclical technology, industrials and materials sectors. In contrast, they believe defensive-oriented consumer staples, telecommunication, and utilities sectors will underperform.

The differences between Ameriprise’s more balanced weighting and Schwab’s more aggressive outlook can be seen in their respective views of some key sectors. For example, where Ameriprise advocates overweighting financials, Schwab calls the sector at Market Perform (Ameriprise’s equivalent of Equal Weight.) Schwab is also more bullish on Materials, which it puts at Outperform, vs. Ameriprise’s Underweight.

Here is Schwab’s recommended allocation to the 10 sectors of the S&P 500:

Sector Weight
Consumer Discretionary Market Perform
Consumer Staples Underperform
Energy Market Perform
Financials Market Perform
Health Care Market Perform
Industrials Outperform
Information Technology Outperform
Materials Outperform
Telecom Underperform
Utilities Underperform

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




Source: http://feeds.smartmoney.com/smartmoney/investing

How To Learn Stocks :
Tempting Targets: 5 Stocks Priced for a Takeover

Companies don’t seem interested in buying rivals at the moment, despite the comparatively low prices they could pay for them. That bodes poorly for stocks in general, but investors can still use the math of takeover pros to find bargains.

U.S. shares are 27% cheaper than a year ago, even after climbing 15% in the second quarter. During the first half, though, the value of announced acquisitions in the U.S. fell 45% from a year earlier, according to data provider Dealogic. TrimTabs, an investment research group, calls the second quarter the most bearish it has seen since it started tracking data in 1995, in terms of companies’ zeal for selling new shares to the public and their reluctance to spend cash to buy either their shares or entire companies.

Investors should read that as a sign of stock-market pessimism among company managers, which signals poor market returns to come, according to TrimTabs. Perhaps that makes now a good time to raise cash, or at least trade pricey stocks for cheap ones. To the latter end, I’ve listed five companies below that corporate suitors might think are good deals right now, if they weren’t so reluctant to spend. Some of the traits that can make a company a potential takeover target can also make it a promising stock. Chief among them is a modest price.

The companies have, in the parlance of merger and acquisition pros, low EV/Ebitda ratios. EV is enterprise value, which is what an investor would pay to buy a company in its entirety and repay all of its debt. Ebitda stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It’s a measure of underlying profit potential that allows for tidy comparisons of companies. A low EV/Ebitda ratio, then, means a company had a modest takeover price relative to its earnings potential. The companies on my list also generate free cash, something acquiring firms like to see.

BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) shares have climbed 31% over the past five years, vs. an 18% decline for the S&P 500. They now sell for 13 times forward earnings, vs. more than 16 times earnings for the index. Sales and profits for BJ’s are rising at the moment, as consumers forsake full-price shops for discount clubs. The company has low profit margins relative to peers like Costco (COST), but also increasing margins, which together suggest both improvement and room for more of it.

Dell (DELL) has suffered sharp sales declines of late, but it has reduced corporate expenses and still produces impressive returns on equity, the mark of an efficient company. In the absence of a global economic recovery, the chief appeal of the stock for investors is a low price. Subtracting the company’s sizable cash balance from its stock price, shares go for about 10 times forward earnings.

Listed below are details on these two companies and three others.

Screen Survivors
Company Ticker Industry Curr. Price EV/Ebitda Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)
Data as of July 1, 2009
Dell DELL Personal Computers 13.73 5.60 46.9 n/a
Sherwin-Williams SHW Chemicals 53.75 6.86 32.0 2.64
Eastman Chemical EMN Chemicals 37.90 5.63 14.1 4.64
BJ’s Wholesale Club BJ Discount Stores 32.23 5.99 14.8 n/a
Weis Markets WMK Grocery Stores 33.52 5.93 8.2 3.46

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




Source: http://feeds.smartmoney.com/smartmoney/investing

How To Learn Stocks :
Jobs Report Slams Stocks; Dow Down 2.6%

News at a Glance

  • Labor Update: Economy lost 467k jobs in June.
  • Equities Fall: Investors disappointed by jobs report.
  • Demand Rises: Factory orders top May consensus.
  • Oil Slump: Crude prices down after inventories report.

The Lowdown

A short week on Wall Street came to a bleak ending.

Stocks took an steep fall Thursday, as traders recoiled after a disappointing June employment report. Each of the major indexes finished the day down more than 2.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 223 points to 8281. The Nasdaq gave up 49 at 1797, and the S&P 500 slipped 27 to 896.

All 30 of the Dow’s components ended the day in the red. Alcoa (AA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Travelers Companies (TRV) were hit particularly hard.

The energy sector was also pummeled. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and ExxonMobil (XOM) each fell by more than 2.9% as oil prices fell on concern over demand. By 5 p.m., crude traded down $2.89 on the day at $66.42 a barrel.

The jobs report was a heavy weight on the broader market. Payrolls fell more than forecast in June, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, according to the Labor Department. Employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, compared to a decline of 345,000 in May. The unemployment rate hit 9.5%, up from 9.4% in May. Analysts had forecast payroll declines of 365,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 9.6%.

World markets were broadly lower. In Europe, stocks fell Thursday after the European Central Bank held the Euro Zone’s benchmark interest rate at its record low of 1%. In Asia, stocks closed down on concern that the U.S. stimulus package isn’t doing enough to curb job losses.

Corporate News

  • General Motors (GM) could file for an initial public offering in 2010, said Harry Wilson, an auto task force advisor who testified in U.S. bankruptcy court Wednesday. The company was in court to get approval to sell about 60% of its assets to the Treasury. The remainder will be owned by the Canadian government and a union reitree trust fund. GM could exit bankruptcy as soon as this month.
  • Lear (LEA) plans to file for bankruptcy after reaching an agreement with secured lenders and bondholders, the company said Wednesday in a statement. The auto supplier is responding to a slowdown in sales brought on by a decline in production on the assembly lines of its major customers.
  • Exelon (EXC) raised its hostile takeover bid for NRG Energy (NRG) by 12% to $7.45 billion after a drop in its share price reduced the premium it had offered. The revised bid is 7.9% higher than NRG’s closing price Wednesday.

The Economy

  • Payrolls fell more than expected in June, declining by 467,000, compared to a decline of 345,000 in May, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate is now 9.5%, up from 9.4% in May. Unemployment was expected to reach 9.6%. Hourly earnings held steady at $18.53 after an increase of 0.1% in May. The average workweek fell by 0.1 to 33 hours. It was expected to hold steady at 33.1 hours. REPORT
  • Weekly jobless claims fell to 614,000 in the week ending June 27, down from 627,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said. Forecasters had expected the number to come in at 615,000. REPORT
  • Factory orders rose 1.2% in May, up from a revised April increase of 0.5%, the Commerce Department said. Factory orders, which reflect demand for durable and non-durable goods, had been expected to rise 0.9%. REPORT

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




Source: http://feeds.smartmoney.com/smartmoney/investing

How To Learn Stocks :
One Health-Care Fund That’s on the Mend

Every time then-President Bush talked about ethanol back in 2005, fashionable stocks like Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (AVR) and VeraSun Energy would gap higher. Despite the fact that corn-based ethanol was inefficient and not economical, it thrived for a while on the basis of subsidies and political largess. The more Bush plugged ethanol, the higher the stocks zoomed. Then the reality of corn-based ethanol set in. Now most of the companies have either filed for bankruptcy or come darn close.

In similar fashion, it is quite possible that the government’s efforts to “fix” health care might, at least for a while, actually benefit many of the more dominant companies as contracts and businesses are doled out to established players. Catching my eye and nipping up against overhead resistance near $20 a share is PowerShares Dynamic Healthcare Sector Portfolio (PTH), an ETF featuring holdings such as Hospira (HSP), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and Becton Dickinson (BDX). Unlike many existing health-care ETFs, which tend to be top-heavy in names like Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), PTH holds an unusually large amount — almost 45% — of smaller companies.

A Healthy Helping

PowerShares Dynamic Healthcare Sector Portfolio (PTH)—YTD

PowerShares Dynamic Healthcare Sector Portfolio PTH

Dynamic Healthcare Sector Portfolio ETF (PTH)
Company Ticker Position %
Source: PowerShares
Waters Corp. WAT 2.80
Hospira HSP 2.63
DaVita DVA 2.59
WellPoint WLP 2.58
Gilead Sciences GILD 2.56
Quest Diagnostics DGX 2.55
Forest Laboratories FRX 2.50
Becton Dickinson BDX 2.48
Baxter International BAX 2.44
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 2.43

If the fix is anything like previous marketplace interventions, politically connected firms can expect a windfall of benefits for a period of time. This lightly-traded fund is a top choice for investor searching for health-care exposure in a sector whose future will be determined not in a laboratory, but on Capitol Hill.

Higher Taxes or Free Gas?

A few months ago we highlighted ways in which private industry was creating value for consumers even as the economy cratered. Many more continue to do so, even those not benefiting from the government’s billion-dollar bailouts.

A truly remarkable program from a major retailer sets a new standard for corporate generosity. The Sears (SHLD) Buyers Protection Program covers any appliance valued more than $399 put on a Sears card before Aug. 1. If a customer loses their job, the company will credit one-twelfth the cost of the item to them every month they remain out of work. If the individual is still jobless a year after purchase, they get the remainder of the balance put on their account and get to keep the appliance for free.

Another offer comes from car maker Hyundai, whose new incentive program allows car buyers to lock in the price of gas at a set rate, now $1.49, for a year if they buy a car before September. Immediately saving buyers approximately $1 a gallon on gas, the company estimates it knocks $1,000 off the price of a car, far from chump change with most of its line selling for under $20,000 as it is.

The most defining characteristic about capitalism is that it is based on mutually beneficial trade. Profitable businesses succeed by offering a value, not demanding a sacrifice. Once again we see scores of companies dealing with economic adversity through innovation and wealth creation, for both their customers and themselves. A free dishwasher? $1,000 of gas? These are tangible values that mean a great deal, especially to a struggling family.

They’ve helped the companies as well: Hyundai’s earlier effort, the “Assurance Plan” that allows buyers to return their cars if they lose their job, has resulted in the company’s market share jumping from 2.9% to 4.2%.

How do Washington’s efforts compare? According to the to the Ethisphere TARP Index, first covered in this space last March, each taxpaying household has lost $1,233 on their “investment” in the government’s TARP program thus far.

A free dishwasher or a $1,233 bill for bailing out AIG (AIG) and Citigroup (C)? Which type of stimulus do you prefer?

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




Source: http://feeds.smartmoney.com/smartmoney/investing

How To Learn Stocks :
First Half Report Card: How 24 Fund Categories Fared

The first half of 2009 has been a whirlwind of events: Unprecedented government efforts to rescue a financial system on the brink, skyrocketing unemployment, dismal corporate earnings and a housing market plagued by defaults and foreclosures. Oh, and then there was that whole $50 billion Ponzi scheme.

Yet, even as all those detrimental factors played out, in March, the market quietly started staging a comeback. According to Lipper, the average S&P 500 index fund gained 15.7% during the second quarter and has now increased 3% year to date. Meanwhile, the average domestic equity fund has climbed 6.5% over the last six months and the average world equity fund has jumped 14.7%. That still doesn’t make up for a dismal 2008, but the performance does seem to indicate that investors are putting some of the bad news in the rearview mirror and are once again comfortable investing in stocks.

“It was a wild six months to try to lump together,” says Stacey Schreft, director of investment strategy at The Mutual Fund Store, headquartered in Overland Park, Kan. “As dramatic as things fell they turned around.”

Adds Ron Rowland, president of Capital Cities Asset Management in Austin, Texas: “Year to date, it looks like nothing ever happened.”

This week, the SmartMoney.com fund screen takes a break from its normal routine to focus on overall fund performance during the first half of 2009. Instead of looking at individual funds with good track records in their respective categories and low fees, we simply list the six-month performance of 24 key fund groups tracked by Lipper. Consider it a first-half report card for your portfolio. We do this screen for an important reason: By staying aware of fund returns, investors can hopefully spot burgeoning trends.

Indeed, one of the emerging themes of the first half of 2009 was the thumping growth funds gave their value counterparts. As you can see from the table below, growth funds easily outpaced value funds up and down the market capitalization spectrum. That trend had been playing out before the market took a nosedive last year — at that point, value briefly trumped growth — but now the gap is widening and many market experts think it will continue to do so since growth stocks historically tend to lead the market out of its doldrums.

“I have been in favor of growth since the middle of ‘07” says Rowland, who hung onto his growth fund holdings even as investors fled to safety.

Now, there were some fund categories that didn’t do all that well. Financial services funds gained 27.4% during the second quarter after most big banks passed the government’s “stress tests” and were able to raise capital to repay federal loans. However, the category is still down 3.4% in 2009. Real estate funds dropped 9.5% the last six months and equity income offerings, the funds that focus on dividend-paying stocks, managed to eke out a mere 1.2% gain.

But at the same time there were also some eye-popping returns. Technology funds soared 24.6% thanks to some M&A deals and opportunistic buying after tech stocks got hammered in 2008. Investors also became more willing to take on risk after fleeing to safe havens last year. The average emerging markets fund gained 34.2%. Latin America offerings, a subset of emerging markets, increased 44.5%. That was the single biggest increase in the first half of any of the 68 equity categories tracked by Lipper.

Investors shouldn’t get overly excited about those rosy returns. “We clearly see people chasing returns,” says Schreft. And many market watchers think another event — rising unemployment, a failed bank, inflation — could cause the rally to quickly cool off. “I think it’s probably safe to say the complete meltdown and disruption of big financial institutions that was scaring everybody months ago is not going to happen,” says Rowland. “The worst case scenario is now off the table. However, the next worst case is still a possibility.”

Leaders of the Pack
Fund Category Year-to-Date Return (%)
Source: Lipper
Note: Data is for date range between Dec. 31, 2008 and June 30, 2009
Latin America 44.5
China Region 37.2
Pacific Ex Japan 34.6
Emerging Markets 34.2
Science & Technology 24.6
Basic Materials 22.9
Int’l Small/Mid Cap Growth 21.0
Gold 18.0
Pacific Region 16.0
Global Multicap Growth 15.7
Natural Resources 13.8
Midcap Growth 13.0
Consumer Services 11.9
Small-Cap Growth 11.4
Multicap Growth 11.2
Large-Cap Growth 10.9
Global Financial Services 10.6
Midcap Core 9.2
Midcap Value 7.8
Multicap Core 7.3
Small-Cap Core 6.3
Large-Cap Core 4.8
Small-Cap Value 4.7
S&P 500 Index 3.0

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




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How To Learn Stocks :
ETFs Hit Sour Note Ahead of Holiday Weekend

Market Wrap-Up

Worse-than-expected job loss numbers ended a grim week ahead of the long Fourth of July weekend. Trading was extended until 4:15 p.m. on Thursday to clear up some technological glitches, but the four-session week ended roughly for stocks. The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls shed 467,000 jobs in June, a much greater decline than the earlier estimate of 350,000. Crude oil dropped below $67 a barrel amid a wide selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 218 to close at 8286. For a complete rundown on Thursday’s trading session see our market story.

Winners

Contrary, heavily leveraged short-term bets were the best move for traders during a disappointing week. The Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares fund (FAZ) rose 10.8%. Signs of an Asian recovery put the iShares MSCI Taiwan Index fund (EWT) among the best unleveraged, heavily traded ETFs, boosting shares 1.4% for the week.

Losers

The widespread dips in energy prices took the United States Natural Gas fund (UNG) down 9.4% for the week, and pushed back shares of the Oil Service HOLDRS Trust fund (OIH) by 8.0%. The broad selloff in stocks had the financial-services sector at its epicenter once again, knocking the SPDR KBW Regional Banking fund (KRE) 5.8% lower.

This Week’s Industry News

Launching Pad

ProShares Advisors launched a pair of leveraged exchange-traded funds Thursday. The ProShares Ultra Russell3000 (UWC) and ProShares UltraShort Russell3000 (TWQ) began trading on the New York Stock Exchange. They seek to replicate by 200% and -200%, respectively, the daily return of the Russell 3000 Index. The company said they are designed primarily for short-term trading strategies. The new funds charge 0.95% in annual expenses.

The Javelin Dow Jones Islamic Market International Index Fund (JVS) started trading Wednesday. It is advertised as the first ETF using an investing style tied to the tenets of Islam. Its portfolio now includes 23 companies representing 18 different currencies. The fund, which charges 0.6% a year, will not invest in companies involved in alcohol, gaming, weapons production, pork products and certain types of entertainment such as casinos, gambling and pornography.

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the launch of the MacroShares Major Metro Up (UMM) and the MacroShares Major Metro Down (DMM) funds, which started trading Tuesday. The funds are designed to deliver 300% and -300% of the return of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price 10 Index, the leading benchmark of U.S. residential home prices.

Next Week’s Notebook

Earnings and Conference Calls

Monday

Vimicro International

Tuesday

A. Schulman, Aeon, Greenbrier, International Speedway, Ruby Tuesday

Wednesday

Alcoa, Family Dollar, Nu Horizons Electronic, Pepsi Bottling Group, Rodman & Renshaw, WD-40

Thursday

3Com, Chevron, Franklin Covey, Helen of Troy, Shaw Group, Value Line

Friday

Infosys Technologies, PriceSmart, Progressive

Economic Data

Monday

10:00 a.m. June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Tuesday

7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index for July 4
8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index for July 4
5:00 p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf for July 4

Wednesday

3:00 p.m. May Consumer Credit

Thursday

8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims for July 4 Week
10:00 a.m. May Wholesale Trade
10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer for June 26
June Chain-Store Sales

Friday

10:00 a.m. May Trade Balance
10:00 a.m. June Import Prices
10:00 a.m. Mid-July Reuters/U. Michigan Sentiment Index

Quick Take

A look at how the industry’s most popular ETFs did on Thursday.

10 Largest ETFs
Symbol Net Assets Price 52 Week High 52 Week Low Volume
SPY 63,692 89.81 130.7 68.13 206,298,931
EFA 30,201 45.23 69.06 32.16 20,731,046
EEM 30,793 31.92 45.21 19.12 59,899,585
GLD NA 91.25 97.24 70.14 7,354,752
IVV 17,692 90.07 130.92 68.24 2,731,112
QQQQ 13,357 35.6 48.32 25.51 110,693,833
IWF 9,442 40.21 55.45 30.49 2,606,710
SHY 7,059 83.77 85 82.52 542,824
VTI 10,157 45.32 65.56 33.75 1,812,598
IWD 7,122 45.88 70.64 34.22 2,829,932

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Source: http://feeds.smartmoney.com/smartmoney/investing

How To Learn Stocks :
Where’d the Rally Go? 5 Signs to Watch Now

So much for the second half of the year getting off to a strong start. The market plunged 2.5% in one trading session just two days into the third quarter. Blame the selloff on the Labor Department, which reported Thursday that the economy shed another 467,000 jobs last month. Earlier estimates pegged the losses at 365,000.

All is not lost, however. May factory orders came in better than economists’ forecast, housing prices edged down at a much slower rate in April and oil fell back well below $70 a barrel. Indeed, these so-called “green shoots” of economic recovery (as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would say) may still be a bit wilted and patchy, but it’s becoming clearer that the freefalls in earnings, GDP, unemployment and housing have been arrested. To be sure, lots of critical indicators are still in decline, but at least the rate of decline has slowed.

“Factory orders have been better the last couple of months and home sales look like they are starting to stabilize,” says Richard Moody, chief economist at investment and research firm Forward Capital. “But any improvement — or any slower rate of deterioration — is really put at risk by what is going on in the labor market. That puts a downside risk on any outlook for the second half of the year.”

Investors have an obstacle course of data and projections to contend with as they poise their portfolios for what promises to be a bumpy second half. Here, then, is a look at five critical areas — and what they portend for the next six months.

Corporate Earnings: Baby Steps Toward Recovery, but Don’t Get Too Excited

The second-quarter earnings season is almost upon us and it’s shaping up to look a lot like the first quarter: bad — but getting better. In the aggregate, S&P 500 second-quarter earnings are forecast to drop 35% year over year, according to Thomson Financial. However, not only is that projected drop a slight improvement over first-quarter results, but analysts’ average forecast actually trended up in June, something that hasn’t happened since 2007.

Investors have been pricing stocks for this “less bad is good” earnings environment throughout the rally that started in March, possibly setting themselves up for disappointment. “The market expectation is that earnings are going to be better in the second quarter than in the first,” says Don Humphreys, president of Voyager Wealth Management. “If they don’t come out better, then the market is going to have to pull back.”

On a positive note, the ratio of negative to positive second-quarter earnings pre-announcements for the S&P 500 is below the long-term average, according to Thomson Reuters. That helps bolster the case that analysts’ estimates are on the mark and that the second quarter, as bad as it may prove to be, will indeed come in better than the first.

Energy Prices: Oil Prices Apt to Stay at Current Levels

“Oil prices are the wild card here, the big unknown,” says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics. A weak economy doesn’t bode well for energy demand, however, and the U.S economic recovery isn’t exactly getting off to the races, he says. Indeed, GDP is forecast to grow just 0.6% in the third quarter, according to The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, and only 1.9% in the fourth. The European recovery looks to be weak as well, Brusca says. That argues against oil prices going much higher.

Of course, traditional theories of supply and demand don’t always apply in the case of oil prices, says Brusca. “I wouldn’t be surprised if oil prices stay where they are, move a little bit higher or even fall 10 or 20 bucks a barrel,” the economist says. But one thing is for certain: The last thing cash-strapped consumers need is $4-a-gallon gas again.

Jobs: The Worst Won’t Exactly Be Over

Employment numbers tend to lag behind other indicators in any recovery, and the current recession is no exception. “The bad news is that unemployment, which is watched very carefully by many Americans because it does affect us directly, will keep growing,” says Dan Seiver, a finance professor at San Diego State University. “It’s quite conceivable we could hit 11% before unemployment actually peaks out,” he says. Unfortunately, that peak may not happen before the end of the year, he says.

Even worse, the average American will keep an eye on the job market – and will likely not start spending freely until it shows some signs of improving. A tight job market, combined with essentially flat hourly wages, “bodes very poorly for consumer spending,” says Forward Capital’s Moody.

“A lot of people are arguing that the stimulus is going to kick in over the second half of the year and that will provide some support,” he says. “But with consumer spending remaining weak, business spending might remain weak.”

Housing: Signs of Stability Ahead

The housing market got us into this mess, so investors and analysts seeking signs of a recovery are jumping on any housing data the second it comes out. That may prove to be a waste of energy during the second half of the year, however.

Recent numbers show a slowing rate of decline in housing prices and suggest that some regions could be bottoming out over the next few months. Those are promising signs, but unfortunately a stabilizing housing market won’t drive the recovery.

“When the jobs situation stabilizes, the housing situation will stabilize,” says Fact and Opinion Economic’s Brusca. “Housing isn’t really a threat anymore. It could still decline. But we are not in a situation where housing is a key. The economy is key to housing, not the other way around.”

Interest Rates: Short- and Long-Term Rates Should Stay Low

The next meeting of the Fed on Aug. 12 will offer a chance to see where short-term interest rates are heading – and how optimistic the Fed is about the overall health of the economy. For now, though, the Fed will likely continue to pursue a near zero-interest-rate policy in order to jumpstart the economy. However, the agency needs to be watchful of any sign of inflation. “Their big thing is to make sure to pull back on the liquidity in time, so as not to get a ‘double-dip recession,” says Don Humphreys of Voyager Wealth Management.

Humphreys says he doesn’t expect inflation to be an issue for quite a while — at least until some real economic growth kicks in. That should also help to keep a lid on long-term rates and tame the so-called bond vigilantes, who sell bonds in the belief that the Fed will have to raise short-term rates to stifle inflation, causing bond prices to fall, says Brusca. (When interest rates rise, bond prices fall.) The recent selloff in long-dated Treasurys pushed longer-term interest rates higher — a situation that, if it continues, would eventually threaten any hopes for recovery.

But after coming very close to the psychologically significant 4%-yield mark, 10-year Treasurys are back at 3.5% “The bond vigilantes recognized that if you’re not going to have a strong recovery, you don’t have to be a vigilante about the interest rates going up,” Brusca says.

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




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How To Learn Stocks :
That’s America: 10 Stocks Launched by Immigrants

America may be the great melting pot, but it hasn’t always fully embraced the immigrants who have arrived on its shores and helped build its foundations. For years, there have been heated debates over everything from how many visas the government should issue to whether newcomers to America are stealing jobs and lowering wages for U.S. citizens.

Indeed, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum rose to national prominence partly on his support for building a barrier along the border with Mexico. On the other side of the debate, the Obama administration has pledged to make creating a path for illegal immigrants to become legal a top priority.

But no matter where people stand on the immigration issue there is one thing that isn’t up for debate: Foreign-born entrepreneurs have founded some of the nation’s biggest companies, and have been responsible for employing millions of Americans over the course of U.S. history.


See 10 companies that were started by immigrants

Nearly 30 years after coming to this country, Vivek Wadhwa, an Indian immigrant, two-time entrepreneur and visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley (he holds similar appointments at Harvard and Duke Universities) co-authored a study that found that, between 1995 and 2005, more than a quarter of the nation’s tech startups had at least one founder who was foreign born. Perhaps more important, immigrant-founded tech companies generated more than $50 billion in annual sales and, in 2005, employed some 450,000 people. The numbers are even greater if you look beyond the tech sector, he says.

“America is the most desirable country in the world for a foreigner,” says Wadhwa. “And it is also the most entrepreneurial society on earth. America encourages risk-taking. It’s called the American Dream.”

From the French-born founder of DuPont (DD) who started out selling gunpowder in the early 1800s to Hungarian-born Andy Grove, the co-founder of Intel (INTC), corporate America and Americans have long benefitted from such risk-taking immigrant entrepreneurs. With Independence Day upon us, SmartMoney surveyed the corporate landscape looking for major American companies that were founded by immigrants. From the bluest (and oldest) of blue chips to the biggest of upstart tech giants, here is a look at 10 companies that fulfill the promise of the American Dream — and provide tens of thousands of Americans with jobs.

Carnival Corporation

Founder: Ted Arison
Born in Israel
U.S. employees: 36,500

Israeli-born Arison started Carnival Cruise Lines in 1972 with a single ship – The Mardi Gras. But the party got off to a slow start. By 1974, the fledgling cruise line was struggling so much that Arison was able to buy full ownership of the company for $1. Now 35 years later, Carnival Cruise Lines has morphed into Carnival Corporation (CCL), which operates 11 separate cruise lines, and has a market cap of over $26 billion. The swine flu outbreak and consumers cutting back on travel haven’t helped the company’s bottom line this year. Analysts on average are expecting sales to fall 11% from 2008 to $13 billion, according to data from Thomson Reuters. The consensus is that 2010 will offer some calmer seas, with sales expected to rise to around $14 billion.

The photos in this article were supplied by the companies, except for the following: Pierre Omidyar and Sergey Brin are from Getty Images; Ted Arison is from the National Foundation for Advancement in the Arts.

DuPont

Founder: Éleuthère Irénée du Pont de Nemours
Born in France
U.S. employees: 25,000

DuPont (DD), the world’s second-largest chemicals company and a long-time component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has given the world everything from nylon to Lycra to Teflon, but it started out as a humble gunpowder manufacturer in 1802. Éleuthère Irénée du Pont de Nemours, the son of a Paris watchmaker, came to the U.S. two years earlier to escape the violence of the French Revolution. By the mid-1800s, DuPont was the largest supplier of gunpowder to the U.S. military.

Based in Wilmington, Del., the company now operates in 70 countries and employs workers in nearly 30 U.S. states. As a basic materials company and early cycle stock, DuPont is well poised to benefit from an upturn in the global economy, especially when it comes to Chinese stimulus spending, says Laurence Alexander, an analyst at Jefferies & Co., who rates the company’s shares at Outperform.

eBay

Founder: Pierre Omidyar
Born in France
U.S. employees: Approximately 10,000

French-born Pierre Omidyar’s eBay (EBAY) not only employs roughly 10,000 Americans, but there are thousands more who have made a living off of the company he founded by auctioning items from their basements and attics. Born to Iranian-immigrant parents, Omidyar moved to the U.S. when he was 6. After graduating from Tufts with a degree in computer science he went to work at a subsidiary of Apple (AAPL), grinding out code by day — and working on his entrepreneurial venture at night. Launched in 1997, eBay now claims the title of the world’s largest online marketplace, but its outsize growth has cooled off due to competition from Amazon.com (AMZN) and other online retailers. Whether new Chief Executive John Donahoe, who succeeded Meg Whitman a year ago, can reinvigorate this growth story remains to be seen, says Benchmark analyst Frederick Moran, who rates shares at Hold.

Google

Founder: Sergey Brin
Born in Russia
U.S. employees: Approximately 13,000

Born in Moscow, Brin immigrated to the U.S. at age 6. After graduating from the University of Maryland, College Park, with a bachelor’s degree in science (and with honors in mathematics and computer science), he enrolled at Stanford University’s prestigious graduate school in computer science where he met Larry Page. The two founded Google (GOOG) in 1998 and Brin — now President, Technology — is part of the three-man team (including Page and Chairman and Chief Executive Eric Schmidt) that shares day-to-day responsibility for running the company. At one point Google’s growth seemed unstoppable, but the recession has taken a toll on its share price. Regardless, the company continues to grab market share in the all-important search business, making the stock a Buy, according to Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali.

Intel

Co-founder: Andy Grove
Born in Hungary
U.S. employees: Approximately 44,000

A refugee of the Hungarian Revolution, Grove immigrated to the U.S. under cover of darkness in 1956. After earning a bachelor’s degree from City College of New York and a Ph.D. from U.C., Berkeley in 1963, Grove worked in the semiconductor industry for the next few years until becoming the fourth employee of a start-up called Intel (INTC), which was launched in 1968. Grove transformed Intel from a maker of memory chips to a manufacturer of microprocessors. The rest, as they say, is history: Today this Dow component is the world’s largest maker of central processing units, or CPUs — the central brain in the majority of the world’s PCs. As an early cycle stock that’s very sensitive to an uptick in the global economy (and a major exporter that benefits from a weaker dollar), Intel’s fortunes look bright as the economy recovers, or so the thinking goes in the market. Investors have pushed Intel’s stock up 30% since the broader market bottomed in early March.

Nvidia

Founder: Jen-Hsun Huang
Born in Taiwan
U.S. employees: 3,300

From rising ping pong star to the co-founder of a $6 billion graphics chip maker, the career track of Taiwan-born Jen-Hsun Huang has been event-filled to say the least. As a teenager, Huang was a nationally-ranked table tennis player; he competed in his first national tournament at the age of 14 in Las Vegas. He earned a degree in electrical engineering at Oregon State University and a masters at Stanford University. In 1993, he co-founded Nvidia (NVDA) with Chris Malachowsky and immediately began serving as president and CEO. It took two years for the company’s first product to launch, but it’s been on a roll ever since. One of their crowning achievements? Graphics technology that makes the yellow first-down line appear on live football games. The stock took last fall’s crash particularly rough: It fell 76%. But so far this year it’s risen 43%.

Pfizer

Founders: Charles Pfizer and Charles Erhart
Born in Germany
U.S. employees: 30,000

It sounds like something out of a bad sci-fi movie: Two German chemists, cousins in fact, move to America seeking opportunity and find it – battling parasitic worms. But that’s how this pharma giant got its start. Charles Pfizer and Charles Erhart came to the U.S. in 1849, with a $2,500 loan, and set up shop in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. The cousins’ first pharma hit was Santonin, a drug used to fight tapeworms. Today, Pfizer (PFE) sells blockbuster drugs like the cholesterol-fighting Lipitor, which brings in $12 billion a year, more than a quarter of the company’s 2008 sales. Linda Bannister, a senior health care analyst at Edward Jones, is concerned that when Lipitor loses its patent protection in 2012, the company will be hard-pressed to replace those sales. But its pending acquisition of fellow drug maker Wyeth (WYE), which had $23 billion in sales last year, should help ease any withdrawal symptoms.

Procter & Gamble

Founders: William Procter and James Gamble
Born in England and Ireland, respectively
U.S. employees: Almost 40,000

Look around your home and you’re likely to find P&G’s (PG) products everywhere. From Tide detergent to Pampers diapers to Crest toothpaste, the nation’s biggest consumer products company and Dow component is truly a red, white and blue chip. Less well-known is that it was founded in 1837 by an English candle maker named William Procter and a soap maker from Ireland named James Gamble. Another interesting piece of P&G trivia: In 1887, the company instituted a pioneering profit-sharing program that gave employees ownership stake in the company. Today P&G investors — both those who are employed at the company and those who are not — can scoff at the notion that the U.S. equity market is suffering from a lost decade. Instead, they can take comfort in the fact that this stalwart consumer staples stock outperformed the broader market by a full 50 percentage points over the last 10 years.

U.S. Steel

Founder: Andrew Carnegie
Born in Scotland
North American (figure includes Canada) employees: 28,680

Pittsburgh’s always been the home of the Steelers, but before there was Terry Bradshaw, Chuck Noll and the Steel Curtain defense, there was Andrew Carnegie and the Carnegie Steel Company. Carnegie, a Scottish immigrant, formed the company in the 1870s. In 1901, it was sold to Elbert H. Gary and J.P. Morgan, who already owned the Federal Steel Company. Together, the two steel manufacturers formed the nucleus of United States Steel Corporation (X), which today produces 31.7 million tons of raw steel annually. The past 18 months haven’t been kind to the steel giant — sagging demand has sent the stock price down more than 65%, but the company’s been down this road before. Ten years ago, the steel industry hit a similar rough patch and U.S. Steel’s stock fell 64%, only to bounce back and gain 621% over the next six years.

Yahoo

Founder: Jerry Yang
Born in Taiwan
U.S. employees: 6,000

What started out as a directory of web sites eventually grew into one of the most trafficked sites on the internet, thanks in large part to its Taiwanese co-founder Jerry Yang. Yang, along with fellow Stanford University Ph.D. candidate, David Filo, began creating the web site that would later be named Yahoo (YHOO) in 1994. Two years later Yahoo went public, with just 46 employees. Now it employs 260 times that amount world-wide, and roughly 6,000 in the U.S. Yang traded in his title of Chief Yahoo to take the helm as CEO in 2007. But the role wasn’t for him – Yahoo’s earnings fell 1% to $1.8 billion and its stock dropped 58% to $12 a share in less than two years. Yang handed over the CEO title to Carol Bartz in January and returned to his Chief Yahoo post. Analysts like Jefferies’ Squali have high hopes that Bartz can reinvigorate Yahoo’s growth. Squali rates the company’s shares a Buy.

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




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How To Learn Stocks :
Housing, Manufacturing Data Lift Stocks

News at a Glance

  • And Up Again: Stocks bounce back on economic data.
  • Housing Surprise: Pending Home Sales rose in May.
  • Manufacturing Improves: ISM Index inches forward.
  • Oil Reverses: Crude prices dip despite inventory decline.

The Lowdown

There may be time for a recovery this week yet.

Stocks finished higher Wednesday, as Wall Street cheered a housing surprise and an improved outlook for the manufacturing sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from triple-digit gains, but still finished up 57 points at 8504. The Nasdaq picked up 11 points to 1846, and the S&P 500 climbed 4 points to 923.

Materials, utilities and capital goods stocks advanced after a report that the manufacturing sector improved in June. The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector rose to 44.8 last month, which was roughly in line with economists’ expectations.

Energy stocks were also in the black after the Energy Department released a report showing oil inventories fell last week by about 3.7 million barrels. However, oil prices leaned negative. By 4:45 p.m., crude traded down 58 cents on the day at $69.31 a barrel.

Housing stocks advanced after the National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index inched forward in May unexpectedly. Pulte Homes (PHM) and Centex (CTX) each posted gains.

World markets were mixed. Europe turned bullish after an increase in a measure of Chinese manufacturing suggested the global economy is recovering. In Asia, stocks fell on signs a regional recovery may not be immediately at hand. Japan’s tankan index, which measures business sentiment, improved to -48, up from -58 in the previous quarter, but the results still were slightly below analysts’ expectations of -43.

Corporate News

  • General Mills (GIS) said its fourth-quarter profit almost doubled as consumers snapped up brands like Cheerios and Betty Crocker. The company said earnings surged to $358.8 million, or $1.07 per share, for the three months ended May 31, up sharply from $185.2 million, or 53 cents per share, a year ago. Profit was 86 cents per share, excluding restructuring charges and other one-time items. Analysts had forecast earnings of 81 cents per share on sales of $3.69 billion. RELEASE
  • Japanese investment bank Nomura (NMR) has reached an agreement to buy Citigroup’s (C) trust banking unit for $197 million, the Japanese bank said in a statement Wednesday. Mitsubishi had tried to buy NikkoCiti Trust and Banking for $260 million in May, but the deal collapsed after Mistubishi failed in its bid to buy Citigroup’s Japanese brokerage unit.
  • Toyota (TM) had its credit rating cut to A+ from AA by Fitch on Wednesday because of concerns about the long-term health of the auto industry. Fitch affirmed Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) at A and BBB-, respectively.

The Economy

  • Non-farm private employment fell by 473,000 in June, according to the Automatic Data Processing’s ADP National Employment Report, released Wednesday morning. The June figure was an improvement over a May decline of 532,000. However, analysts had expected a decrease of 394,000 jobs. REPORT 
  • Construction spending fell 0.9% in May, down from a revised 0.6% increase in April, the Commerce Department said. Economists had predicted construction would slip 0.6%. REPORT
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Manager’s Index for the manufacturing sector rose to 44.8 in June, up from a May reading of 42.8. Analysts had expected a June reading of 44.9. A reading of below 50 indicates the sector is contracting. REPORT
  • The Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.1% in May, slowing from a revised 6.7% increase in April, the National Association of Realtors said. Economists had expected the index to remain flat in May. REPORT
  • Crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels last week, but inventories remain above the upper limit of the average range for this point in the year, the Energy Department said. REPORT

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




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How To Learn Stocks :
3 Stock Picks: SNY, OSK, BEAT

Oshkosh Lands Sizable Armor Truck Contract

At least one segment of the battered U.S. vehicle-making industry got a massive boost Wednesday when heavy truck maker Oshkosh (OSK) won a $1.06 billion defense contract for armored trucks, driving shares up 25% in midday Wednesday trading.

Under the contract, Oshkosh will make MRAP All Terrain Vehicles (M-ATV) that are reinforced against explosions from mines and roadside bombs, like the ones commonly used against American troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Shares of competitor Force Protection (FRPT), which previously held the contract, sank 35% on the news.

In a prepared statement, Oshkosh CEO Robert Bohn said the company would prioritize production of the 2,244 vehicles called for in the contract, due to an urgent need for the vehicles in combat.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Thomas Brinkmann said the government wants 500 to 1,000 trucks a month once full production begins. That’s scheduled to take 60 to 90 days. He said the Oshkosh’s profit margins aren’t known, but it could add 65 cents to 90 cents in earnings per share over the life of the contract and should represent about 60% of the company’s revenues. But, he says, there are limits to the good news.

“Although we believe this contact is a significant win for Oshkosh, it is likely to be immediately reflected in the share price, and we are cautious of significant upside beyond the impact of the contract win,” he wrote Wednesday.

Sterne Agee analyst Ben Elias disagreed. “Oshkosh’s selection implies that it will receive follow up orders to meet the current expected fleet demand of 5,244 vehicles,” he wrote, upgrading the stock to Buy from Hold in a Wednesday report.

Bottom Line: Hold

With the stock skyrocketing by close to 25%, the initial upside from this contract may already be realized. Investors should pay close attention to Oshkosh’s ability to ramp up to full production, as well as the level of U.S. troops that are engaged in combat areas, a number that is constantly shifting.

FDA Backs Sanofi’s Rebuttal of Insulin Drug Reports

American depositary shares of French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) began rebounding Wednesday after the Food and Drug Administration backed the company’s rebuttal of reports that said its insulin increases the risk of cancer. Shares were up 4% midday.

Sanofi shares dropped sharply Friday after several scientific papers linked Lantus, the brand of insulin made by the Paris-headquartered company, to a higher risk of cancer.

The company refuted the conclusions immediately. “The results of these data clearly show that no definitive conclusions can be drawn regarding a possible causal relationship between Lantus (insulin glargine [rDNA] injection) use and the occurrence of malignancies, as the authors of the study point out,” the company said in a press release Friday.

By Wednesday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had also weighed in, warning diabetic patients to continue to take their insulin, and questioning the methodology used by the critical researchers.

“The duration of patient follow-up in all four studies was shorter than what is generally considered necessary to evaluate for cancer risk from drug exposure,” the agency said. “Further, inconsistencies in findings within and across individual studies raise concerns as to whether an association between the use of insulin glargine and cancer truly exists.”

Jefferies & Co. analyst Jeffrey Holford said Monday that Lantus is expected to account for 16% of Sanofi’s sales by 2013. He also said the company had been fairly valued before the controversy weighed on the company’s shares.

The insulin-derived shock to the stock presents a buying opportunity, Natixis Securities analyst Philippe Lanone wrote after the market closed Tuesday. He called Lantus’ safety profile “impeccable” and said that the EMEA, the European pharmaceutical regulator, had also called the studies inconsistent.

“Even in the theoretical event, fast receding today, that a minimal association is found between Lantus and cancer, resulting in mentions being including in the labeling, or even restrictions in use” the stock’s value would not suffer, he said.

Bottom Line: Buy

Despite today’s gains, there still may be some upside for a stock that has been bounced around in the rumor mill.

CardioNet Slashes Earnings Forecast

Shares of medical device maker CardioNet (BEAT), a maker of wireless heart-monitoring devices, cut its full year earnings forecasts by more than half, sending shares plunging 40% in midday trading Wednesday.

The Conshohocken, Pa.-based company said it now expects to earn 30 to 35 cents a share, on revenue of $156 million to $160 million. Its earlier guidance forecast earnings of 69 cents to 73 cents a share and revenue between $170 million and $175 million.

“The revenue guidance is based on lower than anticipated commercial reimbursement rates,” the company said Wednesday. “Volume growth continues to be significant, but is expected to be somewhat lower than the company had anticipated.”

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Steven Halper said in a note published late Tuesday that the news wasn’t surprising given the aggressive guidance the company had previously given for 2010 and 2011.

“In our view, BEAT’s expectations regarding its sales ramp were simply too high. While we recognize BEAT’s growth potential, the company is clearly experiencing some growing pains, which may persist for some time, in our opinion,” he wrote. “At this juncture it is difficult to find the silver lining for BEAT shares.”

CardioNet CEO Randy Thurman said in a conference call that the company’s products remain unique, particularly those that monitor arrhythmia, or irregular heartbeats, in its MCOT product line.

“While revenue is somewhat lower than planned, earnings will also reflect our investments for long-term growth and the anticipated lower commercial reimbursements rates,” Thurman said. “We believe the dynamics of robust growth in a highly cost-conscious healthcare reform market will continue long-term.”

Roth Capital Partners analyst Matt Dolan took a middling view, cutting the stock to Hold from Buy Wednesday. “In our opinion, our underlying thesis for BEAT holds, as we feel that CardioNet’s MCOT technology remains differentiated and serves a significant and underpenetrated clinical need,” he wrote in a research report.

Bottom Line: Hold

Growing pains and an uneven outlook for both the company and health care reform make this less a buying opportunity than a chance to exercise investment discipline through tough times.

SMARTMONEY ® Layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 – 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.




Source: http://feeds.smartmoney.com/smartmoney/investing